By Greg Jarboe
If you’ve been tasked with measuring your communications, then there are some important lessons to learn from measuring ads aired during the “Big Game.”
Now, I didn’t think that I needed to know this stuff when I became the Director of Corporate Communications at Ziff Davis back in 1991. But when I became the Vice President of Marketing at WebCT in 1999, I was expected to know how to cost-justify spending $2.2 million for a TV commercial during the “Dot-Com Super Bowl” in January 2000.
Well, a 30-second spot during the “Big Game” cost $8 million in 2025. So, “Measurement Mavens” may soon need to answer the question, “Are Super Bowl commercials worth it?”
Recently, I wrote an article on this topic for Search Engine Land entitled, “Avinash Kaushik shares secret sauce for measuring Super Bowl ads.” Avinash spent 16-years at Google on Marketing & Strategic Analytics and is an Advisor, Strategic Consultant, and a best selling author of two books on Analytics. Avinash provided a fresh perspective, focusing on his insights on “incrementality,” a marketing metric that measures the impact of a campaign on a specific key performance indicator (KPI). It can help you understand how much of a campaign’s success can be attributed to the campaign itself.
The “Spike and Sustain” Framework:
Kaushik argues that Super Bowl ads, while expensive, can be effective if they’re part of a larger “spike and sustain” strategy. A “spike” refers to a concentrated burst of marketing activity, like a Super Bowl commercial. However, the impact of this spike is fleeting. “Sustain” refers to the ongoing marketing efforts that follow the spike, designed to capitalize on the initial burst of attention and maintain momentum. He emphasizes that without “sustain,” the “spike” is essentially wasted, as the gains quickly evaporate. He quantifies this by suggesting that for every dollar spent on the Super Bowl ad (the spike), companies should invest three to five dollars in sustained marketing in the weeks and months following the game. This sustained marketing could include continued advertising, social media engagement, content marketing, and other tactics to keep the brand top-of-mind.
The Short Half-Life of Super Bowl Ads:
Kaushik explains that the “half-life” of a Super Bowl ad is incredibly short. He explains that within just six hours after the Super Bowl ends, an ad can lose half of the buzz it generates. This means that the water cooler conversations and social media mentions sparked by the ad diminish rapidly. This underscores the need for sustained marketing to prolong the ad’s impact beyond those initial few hours and days. He even points out that remembering any Super Bowl commercial from the previous year is a challenge, illustrating the difficulty of making a lasting impression.
Beyond Business Results: The “Vanity Play”:
While Kaushik focuses on the business implications of Super Bowl advertising, he also acknowledges that there are other valid reasons for running a Super Bowl ad. He calls these “vanity plays.” These can include:
- Boosting Employee Morale: A Super Bowl ad can create a sense of pride and excitement among employees, making them feel good about working for the company.
- Attracting Investors: A Super Bowl ad can signal to potential investors that the company is successful and willing to make big investments, which can be particularly important during fundraising rounds.
- CMO Advancement: For a Chief Marketing Officer, running a Super Bowl ad can be a way to demonstrate their capabilities and raise their profile within the company, potentially leading to promotions or other career advancements.
Kaushik doesn’t dismiss these “vanity plays” as inherently bad. He acknowledges that they can be valuable, especially for large companies with ample resources. However, he stresses the importance of being transparent about the goals of the Super Bowl ad. If the goal is to drive business results, then the “spike and sustain” model is essential. If the goal is something else, then the company should be aware of that and measure the ad’s success accordingly.
Measuring the Impact:
Kaushik outlines different ways to measure the success of Super Bowl ads, depending on whether the ad is focused on performance marketing or brand advertising.
- Performance Marketing: For ads designed to drive immediate sales (e.g., offering a coupon or promoting a new product), success can be measured by tracking sales within the first 48 hours and beyond, using financial models to analyze the lasting impact.
- Brand Advertising: For ads focused on building brand awareness or changing brand perception, the success is measured by tracking brand lift metrics. Kaushik emphasizes “unaided brand awareness” as a key metric, which measures how many people remember the brand without prompting. He also suggests tracking the number of people lifted (i.e., how many people remember the brand after the ad) and the cost per individual lifted (i.e., how much it cost to make each person remember the brand). In addition, he advises tracking the lagging sales effect, which measures the long-term impact of the brand ad on sales.
The Total Cost of a Super Bowl Ad:
Kaushik emphasizes that the cost of a Super Bowl ad is much more than just the cost of airtime. In addition to the media cost (which can be millions of dollars), there are also significant costs associated with:
- Creative Production: Developing and producing a high-quality Super Bowl ad can be expensive, especially if it involves hiring a top-tier advertising agency or using special effects.
- Talent Fees: If the ad features celebrities or athletes, their fees can be substantial.
- Sustained Marketing: As Kaushik emphasizes, the cost of sustained marketing should also be factored into the overall cost of the Super Bowl campaign.
By taking all these costs into account, companies can get a more realistic picture of the true cost of a Super Bowl ad and make more informed decisions about whether or not it’s a worthwhile investment.
Pre-Super Bowl Campaigns:
Kaushik discusses the growing trend of pre-Super Bowl campaigns, where companies release teasers or other content in the weeks leading up to the game. He argues that these campaigns are essential for maximizing the impact of the Super Bowl ad. By generating buzz before the game, companies can reach a wider audience and create anticipation for their Super Bowl commercial. He also points out that these pre-Super Bowl activities are part of the “sustain” effort, building momentum leading into the “spike” of the Super Bowl itself.
What lessons can PR professionals learn from measuring Super Bowl ads?
PR professionals can glean several valuable lessons from how Super Bowl ads are measured, even though PR and advertising operate in slightly different spheres. Here’s a breakdown:
The Importance of Integrated Measurement:
Just as Super Bowl advertisers need to measure the total impact of their campaigns (including pre-game buzz, the ad itself, and post-game follow-up), PR pros should embrace integrated measurement. Don’t just track media mentions. Consider social media sentiment, website traffic driven by PR efforts, changes in brand perception, and ultimately, how these activities impact business outcomes (leads, sales, etc.). The Super Bowl example demonstrates that a single metric (like just “reach”) rarely tells the whole story.
Beyond Reach: Measuring Impact and Influence:
Super Bowl ad measurement goes beyond just how many people saw the ad. It looks at impact – did it change brand awareness, perception, or purchase intent? PR should similarly move past vanity metrics like impressions and focus on actual influence. Did your PR efforts shift public opinion? Did they drive engagement? Did they contribute to a change in policy or behavior? These are harder to measure but far more valuable.
The Power of “Spike and Sustain”:
While PR doesn’t always have the same “spike” moments as a Super Bowl ad, the principle applies. A big product launch, a major announcement, or a crisis can be a “spike” of PR activity. Just like Super Bowl ads, this spike alone isn’t enough. PR pros need a “sustain” strategy to capitalize on that moment – ongoing media relations, influencer engagement, content marketing, and community building to keep the conversation going and solidify the message.
Defining Clear Objectives and KPIs:
Super Bowl advertisers need to be clear about what they want to achieve (sales, brand awareness, employee morale, etc.) to choose the right metrics. PR pros should do the same. Are you trying to improve brand reputation? Drive traffic to a website? Support a legislative initiative? Your objectives should dictate your Key Performance Indicators (KPIs). Don’t just measure everything; measure what matters.
The Value of Long-Term Measurement:
The Super Bowl conversation highlights the importance of tracking long-term effects. Brand building, reputation management, and shifting public opinion are not overnight achievements. PR pros should establish systems for tracking the impact of their work over time, not just in the immediate aftermath of a campaign. This might involve regular surveys, social listening, or analysis of website traffic and sales data.
Recognizing the “Vanity Play” (and its place):
Just as some Super Bowl ads are more about “vanity” (employee morale, investor relations) than direct sales, PR can also serve non-business goals. Sometimes, PR efforts are about building the reputation of a leader, showcasing a company’s social responsibility, or simply generating positive buzz. While measurable business outcomes are always ideal, PR pros should also recognize and articulate the value of these less tangible benefits. However, just like with Super Bowl ads, clarity about the objective is essential.
Understanding the Total Cost:
PR campaigns, like Super Bowl ads, have costs beyond just the obvious. Consider staff time, agency fees, content creation costs, media monitoring tools, and the opportunity cost of not pursuing other initiatives. Understanding the total cost helps justify the investment in PR and allows for better resource allocation.
The Importance of Pre-Event Buzz:
Just as Super Bowl advertisers build anticipation before the game, PR pros should focus on generating pre-event buzz for major announcements, campaigns, or initiatives. This can involve media outreach, influencer engagement, social media teasers, and other tactics to capture attention and build momentum.
What does this mean for Measurement Mavens?
By applying these lessons from Super Bowl ad measurement, PR professionals can develop more effective strategies, demonstrate the value of their work more convincingly, and ultimately achieve better results for their organizations.
If I’d known this 25 years ago, then I might have cost-justified spending $2.2 million for a TV commercial during the “Dot-Com Super Bowl” in January 2000.
Do I have any regrets that I sat on the sidelines 26 years ago and watched ads from 14 other dot-com companies during the Big Game?
Well, the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000. And despite some temporary spikes, start-ups like Pets.com, Computer.com, and Epidemic.com folded, while publicly traded companies that had purchased Super Bowl ads saw their stock prices decline sharply.
The following year, E*TRADE’s 2001 Super Bowl commercialhumorously showed their chimpanzee character in a deserted landscape littered with remnants of failed dot-com businesses, including a nod to Pets.com.
So, I have no regrets that I missed the Big Game.
