Every January I look into my Magic 8 Ball of Measurement to make communications measurement predictions for the coming year. What I see there gets filtered through my experience of many previous trips around the sun, my conversations with colleagues, what I hear on NPR, and by how busy the woolly bear caterpillars were last fall.
In the past I’ve been right about a lot of things, and wrong about a few. This time I’m quite confident predicting that the general outlook will improve greatly over last year. Beyond that, well, see what you think…
1. Events will continue to be virtual.
As excited and hopeful as we all are now that COVID vaccines are available, the simple availability of a vaccine does not guarantee that peoples’ minds and perceptions will change enough to allow us to once again conduct IRL events profitably and successfully.
First of all, from the organizer’s perspective, until we have some sort of trusted, credible system to certify that attendees are vaccinated, organizations won’t want to assume the liability of hosting an in-person event.
And even if you do impose a system of proof of vaccination or sufficient negative tests, your attendees will still need to overcome their own fears. If your stakeholders perceive travel or attendance to be dangerous or even inconvenient, they will continue to prefer Zoom. In fact, one lesson of this past year is that some events — e.g., presidential conventions and maybe even inaugural parades — are just better suited to a virtual format.
If you can afford to do a “hybrid” event, which adds together all the costs involved for an in-person event and all the costs and personnel of managing a virtual event, then you’ll be fine. A better solution is to rethink why you are doing the event, look at your data, and figure out what the most cost-effective solution really is.
2. You will never leave crisis mode.
Whether you are preparing for a crisis, fearing one, or recovering from one, adverse occurrences are going to be a bigger part of your job in 2021. Whether it’s your CEO or one of your employees being identified as an insurrectionist, or discovering that you are the target of millions of dollars of ads from The Lincoln Project, you’re going to be spending more time defending your brand than promoting it.
No matter how large or small your company, in our current highly volatile and polarized news cycles it doesn’t take much to be the subject of a negative tweet, at best, and a prolonged investigation, at worst. Never mind all the lawsuits and issues that COVID will bring.
Millions of Americans, journalists and otherwise, have grown addicted to news alerts, twitter trends, and other technological wizardry that has turned too many of us into doom-scrolling news junkies. As a result, journalists have to keep finding new news to fill the bottomless pit, and they aren’t going to be satisfied with your happy little press release about your latest new product. And, frankly, the dumber your press releases, the more likely they will question your credibility. And if you play ostrich and try to avoid the press altogether, well, good luck with that. Your attempt is certain to cause journalists and citizens alike to wonder what you’re hiding.
3. Communications silos have fallen: we will leverage the advantages.
Employees are your most visible brand ambassadors. They post with pride or derision on Facebook, Instagram, LinkedIn or TikTok — and Comms better be on top of it. The same will hold true for what used to be that ultimate ivory tower, investor relations. The truth is that whatever happens with your personnel, stock, or stock price impacts your PR, employee morale, public affairs, and everything else.
We are one highly connected world these days. Even if your organization hasn’t officially or physically eliminated silos, on Zoom no one knows where your desk used to be. The modern, efficient organization will embrace this democratization of communications and realize that all kinds of people outside of legal, HR, and PR can be great communicators for your brand. The experiences that Beam Suntory and Georgia Pacific relayed at last fall’s Summit on the Future of Measurement are perfect examples of how you can leverage the enthusiasm in different departments to get your messages across. And do so far more effectively and efficiently than through any paid medium.
4. Empathy and trust will be more essential than ever.
The experiences of 2020 — including deaths from Covid, losses in fires and hurricanes, the horrifying death of George Floyd and subsequent protests, the tragedy at the Capitol, and any of the other social or political dumpster fires — rocked us to our collective cores. Regardless of our politics, beliefs, or locations, we all witnessed too much trauma in 2020.
As a result, we all know a lot more about empathy than we did a few years ago. Whether it was for nurses, victims, teachers, police, or just regular humans, we’ve witnessed corporations coming forward in remarkable ways to communicate empathy towards those suffering or in need. We all know how good that made us feel, and we all want more of those feelings.
We have learned to admire brands that show their humanity and stand for something, and in 2021 we will demand more of it. Organizations that lead with purpose do better — in terms of shareholder returns, stock price and the ability to attract and keep talent — than those that don’t. So start figuring out how you can join that club.
5. You’ll hire more cartoonists and comics than industry experts.
Humor has proven to be another vital survival skill. We laughed at memes, videos, comics, and late night comedy bits. Humor has been a universal balm to soothe our anxious minds, and the companies that have done it well made a lasting impression. Think Georgia Pacific with its endless toilet paper puns, and Steak-umms with its wry take on daily life.
Smart communications pros will learn that lesson. They’ll ditch the typical boring corporate consultants and industry experts and put comics and cartoonists into their line ups. We don’t need more lectures, we need to laugh. (And if you’re wondering what will do the trick, I recommend Ted Lasso.)
6. Platforms and people you’ve never heard of will derail your plans.
I’ll bet that few corporate communicators were on TikTok or even knew what Parler was prior to 2020. But suddenly that’s where everyone had to be. I haven’t a clue what the 2021 version of those phenoms will be. But you can count on one or more of them, and you better be prepared. Not to jump right on whatever new channel emerges, but to do the research necessary to make decisions about whether you should be on it, and what kind of content will work.
7. Local and CSR will trump pricing, features, and delivery.
Good CSR and shopping local will drive markets more than ever in 2021. We had a hint of this a year ago, as purpose-driven brands were able to attract better talent and grab more market share. We’ve seen friends and neighbors lose jobs, and our favorite restaurants, hardware stores and gift shops shut down. And so the importance of buying local and supporting local businesses has hit us all in the face.
That loyalty isn’t going anywhere in 2021. Sure, we’ll still shop on Amazon, but it’s interesting that Etsy’s sales were up 71% in the first half of 2020. And we’ll continue to order takeout from local restaurants, shop more often at the local farmer’s market, and buy gifts from local merchants. Price, features, and other standard USPs aren’t nearly as important in a pandemic-driven economic crisis. Smart brands will figure out how to tie their stories and their products to local niche audiences.
8. Niche and issue-specific influence will be critical.
Speaking of niches, the local and issue-specific influencers with far fewer followers than the usual celebs will make far more difference to your brand in 2021. In order to influence anyone, a person has to have credibility, empathy, and trust. And too many influencers lost much of their trust last year for posting tone-deaf photos or saying stupid things. Obviously, there are many that emerged from 2020 with more credibility than ever, but only the richest of budgets can afford them.
The key to efficient influence marketing in 2021 is going to be to identify experts in niche areas -— like specific breeds of dog, specific types of food, or specific genres of culture — and use them to move the needle.
9. You won’t be able to avoid politics.
As much as I would like to say that President Biden will make it all better and politics will fade back into the background, the events of January 6th and all that they revealed will keep politics front and center for months to come. Regardless of what side of the political spectrum your organization is on, there’s a good chance that if you’re visible you’ll get dragged into the political limelight. Be prepared with a good statement. Saying nothing will cause you more headaches than you need.
10. Impressions will go on life support.
Yes, I know I’ve said it before, but this will be the year that even the most impression-addicted folks will seek alternatives. Senior leadership is skeptical of meaningless numbers that don’t connect to profits. And leadership, clients, and others who control checkbooks are demanding to know exactly who the people, buyers, and influencers behind those numbers are. If you can’t provide those details, you’ll be thrown out of the board room.
Your best bets are to tag everything, become an expert on GA4 (the latest version of Google Analytics), ramp up your SEO rank, and do pre/post surveys. These techniques will provide solid data you can use to show progress and to plan the future. ∞
